The recent surprise production cut by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies has placed Brent crude oil prices back in the spotlight, with the potential to surpass $100 a barrel for the first time since August . This development has significant implications for the Japanese yen and its exchange rate against other currencies.
Japan, as a major importer of oil, is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices. The average oil price during the COVID-19 pandemic was $48.36, significantly lower than the pre-pandemic average of $56.70 . With oil prices on the rise due to production cuts, the Japanese economy may face increased inflationary pressures and potential weakening of the yen.
A weaker yen can have both positive and negative effects on the Japanese economy, businesses, and consumers . On the one hand, a weaker yen can boost exports by making Japanese goods more competitive in global markets. On the other hand, it can lead to higher import costs, particularly for essential commodities such as oil. These higher costs may be passed on to consumers in the form of increased prices for goods and services.
In response to the weakening yen and other economic pressures, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained a policy of low-interest rates, aimed at combating deflation and stimulating economic growth . However, the steep slide in the yen’s value has raised questions about the sustainability of this policy and the potential need for intervention.
In September 2022, Japan intervened in the currency market for the first time in 24 years to prop up the value of the yen . This intervention may signal the government’s concern about the impact of a weaker yen on the economy and its readiness to take action to protect its currency.
The Japanese yen has shown some vulnerability against the US dollar in recent times but has been less susceptible to other currency pairs . The impact of OPEC+ production cuts on the Japanese yen remains to be seen, but the potential for higher oil prices and subsequent inflationary pressures is a significant concern for Japan’s economy moving forward.